Pound euro exchange rate unable to capitalise on its risk-premium even as EUR rates enter a tail-spin across the currency markets

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Published on Monday, 23 July 2012 09:37

Written by Rob Samson

International Money Transfers at our sister site

Indeed, the euro is under a significant amount of pressure this morning as a slew of issues in Spain force markets deeply into the red.

The pound to euro is 0.14 pct in the red this morning as the pound sterling is unable to find the strength required to continue what have been impressive monthly gains.

Indeed, the euro is under a significant amount of pressure this morning as a slew of issues in Spain force markets deeply into the red. Read all about it here.


No doubt investors will be aware that the UK currency could have over-extended itself to some extent.

However the pound is in demand against other risky currencies, such as the Australian dollar, as the currency continues to maintain its risk-premium.

"Defensive considerations remained extremely important with a further inflow of funds to the UK Pound as a relative safe haven over fears in the Euro-zone," notes Adam Solomon at TorFX.

Looking ahead we have the first estimate of gross domestic product in the second quarter is due for release this week, with forecasts for a 0.2% contraction.

This would mark the third consecutive quarter of contraction in the UK economy and likely increase speculation that the Bank of England may implement further stimulus measures.

Also this week on the UK economic calendar is the CBI industrial trends survey for July, which should provide an indication of the latest trends in the manufacturing sector.

The pound dollar exchange rate remains on the back-foot.

"The Pound encountered strong resistance in the region of 1.57 against the U.S Dollar on Friday and steadily lost ground towards the end of the European trading session with lows below 1.56," says Solomon.

The UK currency continued to challenge 44-month highs against the struggling Euro, rising close to 1.29. The latest UK government borrowing data recorded a June borrowing requirement of £14.4 billion, from £13.9 billion the previous year.

There will be further speculation that domestic and global economic vulnerability will trigger a further deterioration in the finances and create additional pressure for a government policy change.

The Euro was subjected to heavy selling pressure again on Friday with the focus fixed on Spain, as confidence in the economy deteriorated quickly.

The Eurogroup meeting formally agreed the €100 billion bailout for the Spanish banking sector, which provided only brief relief for sentiment and the Euro. In the formal agreement for the banks, there was a further downgrading for the GDP forecast with recession expected to continue in 2013.

There was a sharp increase in Spanish bond yields over German bunds , which widened to a fresh record high and in this context, there was further speculation that Spain would also move to a sovereign bailout, which is having a hugely negative impact on the Euro.